NCBR’s Zero-emission Energy System Symulator
Marcin Popkiewicz
This article describes the Energy System Simulator developed as part of a project by the National Centre for Research and Development – a web-based, easy-to-use tool that allows to see how a fully electrified energy system with a given level of demand and capacities of energy sources ‘pans out’. The simulator takes into account all high-potential energy sources in Poland (wind, PV, NPPs and biomass) and all sectors of the economy, including electrified transport and heat in buildings and industry, as well as hydrogen production for sectors that cannot be directly electrified. Electricity production by weather-dependent sources (wind, PV) is based on actual weather data and operating profiles from 2015 to 2023. Demand is based on actual demand in 2023 and heating needs for actual temperatures for the selected year of analysis. The methodology for obtaining this data is described in the appendices. In the paper, after an introduction to the key assumptions of the simulator, analyses are carried out in turn:
• the feasibility of supplying currently electrified economic sectors with weather-dependent sources with the support of dispatchable gas-fired power plants (ultimately running on bioCH4 and/or H2) – in scenarios without and with electricity storage
• intermediate scenarios with electrification of other economic sectors, expansion of energy source capacity and improvement of energy efficiency
• scenarios covering additionally sectors hard to electrify directly, also introducing low-temperature heat storage for buildings and high-temperature heat storage for industry and demand-side management – with 100% RES options and several GW of nuclear power plants.
More in the issue: 5/2024 Energetyka.
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